Speaker
Description
The increasing congestion in low Earth orbit (LEO) has heightened the need for proactive space situational awareness (SSA) to mitigate collision risks among active satellites. This study presents a conjunction analysis for Kenya's Taifa-1 56208 satellite and the SpaceBEE-163-55089 satellite constellation using conjunction data messages (CDMs) from the United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) and the Advanced Conjunction Analysis Tool (AdvCAT) in Systems Tool Kit (STK). Conjunction alerts were generated based on Two-Line Element (TLE) data and Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs) provided by Space-Track, which offer precise positional and velocity information for cataloged objects. Using the AdvCAT tool within STK, we evaluated conjunction risks for close-approach scenarios, applying key collision risk thresholds, including miss distance, Probability of Collision (Pc), and Time to Closest Approach (TCA). The analysis prioritized events with a miss distance below 1 km and Pc above 1e-4, which are considered critical for collision avoidance decision-making. Three ellipsoid separation thresholds—10 kilometers, 5 kilometers, and 1 kilometer—are used to evaluate collision probabilities and refine mitigation strategies. Results indicate that several close-approach alerts exceeded predefined collision risk thresholds, warranting further analysis and potential mitigation measures. The study highlights key parameters influencing collision risk, such as orbital configurations, spatial density of objects in shared orbital regimes, and inaccuracies in TLE-based predictions. These findings underscore the importance of timely and reliable conjunction analysis for active satellites like Taifa-1, which is a critical asset for Kenya’s Earth observation and socio-economic development programs.
| Stream | Science |
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